I support an increase in federal tax on gasoline as a means of transitioning from fossil fuels, however I do see potential problems that will cause this source of revenue to eventually become unsustainable.
First, there is already serious concern at the U.S. Department of Transportation regarding a steady decline in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) which began at mid-decade. In fact, the current Highway Trust Fund is expected to come up short for the first time since the fund was created at the inception of the National Interstate and Defense Highways Act of 1956. The decline in the Trust Fund is related to a number of changes in our society, i.e. driving habits and demographics, all of which are causing Americans to drive less each year. These trends are not expected to reverse, therefore relying on a tax to reduce gasoline use will succeed as it simultaneously saps revenue from needed programs. Currently less gasoline is being consumed without a tax increase, thus an increase will only speed up the process and transport us more quickly to a point where generating revenue to support the transportation system’s infrastructure will become a critical issue.
Second, as more private and commercial vehicles transition to alternative propulsion there will be an expected decrease in gasoline use. In order to deal with this change, increasing taxes on fossil fuels will initially seem like an attractive option in light of the Trust Fund’s dwindling revenue and as a method of speeding up the transition to EVs and other technologies. The problem in choosing this route is that it will take us to a point in time where there will be less sources of revenue, i.e. gasoline, for our transportation system (e.g. highways, bridges, transit, etc.). This may lead to prolonged neglect of infrastructure which will further decrease VMT. Public transit will not be an option under this scenario as it also relies on revenues generated by taxes on motor fuels.
In the end, the public needs to start thinking now about new ways of generating revenue for the transportation system in order to continue making it more efficient and environmentally sustainable. For example, taxes could be based on the extent of a vehicle’s use of the road network. This could be achieved using GPS to track vehicle miles traveled and calculate a charge for that usage.